Márkus, László / Arató, Miklós: The effect of epidemics on mortality

Helyszín: Online, https://meet.google.com/pfp-yzpu-cbe

Időpont: 2020.06.30. 15:55-16:15


We intend to investigate the changes of yearly mortalities in association with known epidemics.
We are aimed at modeling these changes because those may affect the balance and provisioning
of insurers. In the recent actuarial literature, the Lee-Carter [1] model and its variants are used
most frequently. This model combines the classical mortality table approach and the theory of
time series. According to experience, however, for the correct application many years of
observations were needed. A completely different approach has been elaborated in the works of
Arató et al. [2] . They are looking for similar patterns in years and countries and these patterns are
the basis of forecasting. Another approach was suggested in Janssen and Skiadas [3] and Skiadas
and Skiadas [4] . The ”health state function” introduced in these papers very expressively describes
the health state of individual until death. The current applicants already have started to develop
this model further. By the help of these new ideas they could describe the worsening of mortality
in recent years in several developed countries. These mentioned models serve as background for
the current project.